Vitaliy Katsenelson
Fly, Don’t Buy Airlines or Why Big Banks Make Dumb Loans
Why would somebody ever give a loan or buy airline bonds of any country? I can understand buying distressed bonds or maybe a stock as a trade.
Fortune’s June 25 issue
Fortune's June 25 issue has come out with the top picks for Growth & Income, Bargain Growth, Small Wonders and Deep Value.
Subprime Downgrade… more to come?
There was an interesting article in the WSJ on Moody’s downgrading 131 bonds backed by a pool of subprime mortgages.
Meet Your New Local Banker – China
The Financial Times reports China's largest bank, ICBC, announced its intentions to get into the banking business in the US.
The Joseph A. Banks Machine!
The Joseph A. Banks (JOSB) selling machine is kicking on all cylinders - yesterday’s quarterly numbers were proof of that.
More than just keeping up with the Dow Joneses
As the mutual fund industry has grown, the desire for short-term gratification has altered the focus, turning an investment business into a marketing one.
First Marblehead: Attractive Opportunity
In this article I made an argument that despite high uncertainty surrounding First Marblehead's (FMD) business at nine times earnings, it is a very attractive opportunity. Here are some additional points that I omitted in the article:
First Marblehead Shouldn’t Be Jealous of Sallie
May 31, 2007 - The Motley Fool
Investors love certainty. Their affection for uncertainty ranks with their fondness for a visit to the dentist for a root canal on Christmas Day.
However, great investment opportunities are created when certainty takes a vacation. In the case of First Marblehead (NYSE: FMD), certainty took an extended sabbatical. The stock dropped over 20% when two of its largest customers -- JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), together representing roughly 44% of sales -- announced with a private equity firm their intention to buy Sallie Mae (NYSE: SLM), First Marblehead's largest competitor. Uncertainty brings fear, which in turn brings opportunity -- First Marblehead is trading at about eight to nine times earnings!
Laws of Economics
The laws of economics are pretty much intact in the rest of the world; a global low interest rate environment has driven an increase in debt consumption and rising interest rates will have their impact globally.
Barney Frank Keep Your Hands Off (please)
Barney Frank’s plan to shift legal liability to the investors who buy mortgage-backed securities is one of the stupidest decisions that came out of Capitol Hill since… well, ever.
Love Serenades and New Flings
I sang love serenades for Abbott Labs' (ABT) stock for a long time. Call me materialistic, but my love for stocks is not ‘til death do us part,’ it is conditional of fundamentals staying intact and of valuation - it has to be undervalued.
Russia? Think Again
As you look at the high-flying Russian stock market, you may feel like you want some of it. But before you dive into Russia consider this: as it is, Russia is a dysfunctional play on high oil prices as well as commodities. It is no less bureaucratic than it was some fifteen years ago.
Between the Lines
I was very amused by the interview given by the CEO of Countrywide (CFC). If you read between the lines of what he said he was pleading for the Fed to lower rates.
China – Does It Really Matter?
The reaction to the possibility of slowdown in the Chinese economy was an excuse for a correction. This correction has caught many with their pants down, due to the euphoria of the cyclical bull market.
Don’t Let Bull Market Convince You That You Are Smart
Lately I've been getting this powerful feeling that everything I touch turns to gold. Every time I buy a stock, it goes up. Did I finally figure out the stock market game? Did I find a secret to Will Rogers' advice? Buy stocks that go up, and if they don't go up, don't buy them.
The Future of Corporate Profits. The “E” in the P/E Equation
As margins revert to the historical average, corporate earnings growth will either decelerate — disappointing Wall Street expectations of 8% earnings growth for the S&P 500 over next five years — or decline, driving earnings, the “E” in the P/E equation, down.
Russia: We Don’t Need the West Anymore
Royal Dutch Shell's $7.5 billion sale to Gazprom may have been coerced by the Russian government. Vitaliy Katsenelson looks at the Sakhalin-2 sale and examines the long-term implications if Russia disregards Western investment.
Market Timing and Discipline
I am not a market timer, I have no idea when the market will turn - it is too difficult to execute market timing strategy on a consistent basis, in my opinion.
Abbott or GE – who is smarter?
I am not a buyer of Abbott Labs (ABT) at this price, as the margin of safety has been depleted by the latest stock appreciation. But I like its latest transaction with General Electric (NYSE GE).
Oil Service Stocks vs. Big Oil Stocks
I'm not a big fan of large oil companies as most of them have little or no organic production growth and they are completely at the mercy of oil prices, but I am getting interested in oil service stocks for several reasons:
