Vitaliy Katsenelson
Sporadic Thoughts: Aroung the Eearnings Block and Bargain Basement?
Becton Dickenson (BDX) is another darling of mine that reported 3rd quarter numbers today. Revenues grew 8% (excluding currency benefit) and performance was very solid across all segments - a sign of business quality.
Dividends and Share Buybacks
Before the 1982-1998 bull market, dividends accounted for a very large portion of stock market returns. In fact, in the 1966-1982 bear market, they were the returns investors received while watching P/E compress under the market.
Sporadic Thoughts: Consumer, Airlines Pricing Power and Google
This Quarter's Theme: Consumer Weakening I am getting the feeling that this holiday season is going to be ugly, or at least disappointing. Listening to earnings calls of companies I follow I keep hearing this "consumer weakening" justification to their poor results.
Mailbag: Wal Mart – The Capitalist Pig
Vitaliy Very interesting article on Wal Mart (WMT). Here’s my two cents. Capitalism, without a social context, is a pretty ...
Thoughts on Abbott Labs and Lloyds TSB
I was more than satisfied with Abbott Laboratories (ABT) 3rd quarter performance. Its margins were depressed in the quarter as for several reasons: It took several charges; sales of Mobic, a low margin drug, were up 146% and R&D was up 15% as ABT was ramping up spending on development of its own stent.
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly – US Bank – 3rd Quarter 2005
In the first quarter of 2005 I put US Bank (USB) stock on double secret probation. After the second quarter I took it off probation. This quarter's performance earns USB a get-out-of-jail-free card.
A Good Company Versus a Good Stock
I know very little about baseball. Football, hockey and chess are the national sports in Russia. This is a true story: about thirteen years ago I went to my first baseball game.
Show some respect for a solid British bank
Lloyds TSB is the largest UK-based, non-multinational bank but new investors outside of the country confuse the company with that icon of risk UK commercial property and casualty insurer Lloyd's of London.
Mailbag: The Russian Front: Oil, Putin and Prosperity
I am answering to questions about why I don't follow Russian markets, oil production and more.
The Russian Front: Oil, Putin and Prosperity
I don't follow Russian markets and recently I discovered that I don't understand the psyche of Russian people. I don't even have a decent inventory of hard liquor at home, a disgrace by any Russian standard. And please don't be misguided by my Russian first name.
Discussion on Katrina
I think the Federal government is to blame in part for the level of destruction caused by the hurricane Katrina. This is not a political statement but rather an economical one; remember I am a capitalist pig (not a political one)!
Approach to risk management
To finish first, first you must finish. Thus looking down (for risk) often is more important than looking up (for return). In a long only portfolio there are three interrelated pillars to risk management: diversification, stock selection, and valuation.
Earnings Games
JeffMacke© and I usually agree on things. In our fundamental panel discussion at MIM2, I discovered that Macke and I disagree on the issue of management's earnings guidance.
Nokia poised to ring investors’ bells
Nokia is a perfect showcase for contrarian value investing. It is easy not to like Nokia stock, especially for US investors, as Nokia has not come up with a decent cell phone in the US for a while.
Small telecoms market means NZT is nearly alone in its field
The stocks of American local telephone companies are down substantially from their heyday of the late 1990s and they have been facing problems on many fronts, including fierce competition from cable operators.
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly – US Bank – 2nd Quarter 2005
The light at the end of the tunnel appears very bright for banking stocks as aging baby boomers will likely demand more of their products and services as they get deeper into the retirement stage of their lives. However, in the meantime the light is flickering somewhat as banks are going through some tough times with net interest margins under pressure due to the flattening of the yield curve.
RX – Still a Gem, Just in the Wrong Hands
A couple of days ago headlines read, "Dutch company VNU, Inc (VNUVY) announced they would buy IMS Health (RX) for $6.9 billion". However, in its press release, RX announced that it is merging with VNU. Did VNU buy RX or was it a merger?
Why I am still in love with Abbott
Abbott Labs got a less than happy round of applause Wednesday from the market even as it beat the consensus earnings number by a penny.
China Speed – Running into the Great Wall?
According to the Economist, the Chinese economy grew 9.4% in the first quarter in 2005 with industrial production being up an astounding 16%. Surprisingly most of that growth was real, as inflation was only 1.8%. It is impossible to say how accurate these numbers are, since they are put out by a very political and secretive entity - the Chinese government.
Beware the boredom of the bear market
In the last century, every prolonged bull market, which ran about 16 years, was followed by a similar length bear market. I believe this is not a random pattern. It takes a long time for an emotional cycle to reach its climax, and it takes a similar time to reverse that cycle and drive valuations to the other extreme. In a bull market rising prices intensify optimism and euphoria. The more persistent the ascent the more certain investors become of their abilities. As the perception of risk gets duller, even the most risk averse become risk seekers.
Demoting General Motors
Excellent article on General Motors (GM) in the May 9th edition of Business Week. Here are some important points and my thoughts.
