China
The Chinese Black Swan
Party rulers in China are trapped in a position that chess players deeply fear - zugzwang - where any move made puts you at disadvantage.
Video from China/Japan Presentation and DC Trip
I had been in DC a few times before but never really had time to see the city. I took my almost-ten-year-old son Jonah with me on this trip, and we had an amazing experience.
China – The Mother of All Gray Swans / Japan – Past The Point of No Return
Overcapacity + late-stage growth obsessive 1998 - 2008, economy grew at 10% a year. China's customers are overleveraged and are deleveraging.
Set the Bar High
The world today is riddled with unique economic, political, and demographic risks. Finding attractively priced assets that will perform well in spite of these challenges is excruciatingly difficult.
$1.3 Billion Burj Khalifa 2.0 is Brilliant!
Earlier this week we saw reports that “Beijing authorities plan to build a "seven-star hotel" modelled after Dubai's Burj Khalifa - the world's tallest building - in a $1.3 billion joint project with Saudi Arabia.”
China – The Mother of All Grey Swans
I had the pleasure of presenting my thesis on China and Japan at the Casey Research Summit in San Diego in early October.
Poststeroid Economics
During the ’80s and ’90s, ignorance was bliss. The global economy was growing nicely, and analyzing it seemed like a waste of time.
Shadow over Asia
I had the pleasure of presenting my thesis on China and Japan at the Casey Research Summit in San Diego in early October.
Musings on Kids and Asia
My nine-year-old son Jonah and I have been playing chess a few hours a day. I never thought I'd enjoy playing chess as much, but I do.
China Roundtable with Robert Horrocks and Vitaliy Katsenelson
China’s recovery from the global recession has been sharp and striking, but we have been hearing different views on China’s recent economic performance.
China: the coming costs of a superbubble
China may seem to have defied the recession and the laws of economics. It hasn't. When China's bubble bursts, the global impact will be severe, spiking US interest rates.
Don’t call me Dr. Doom, call me Mr. Realist
The current strength of the US economy is significantly boosted by steroids graciously provided by the US government in the form of stimulus.
Business Insider Interview: China – Speed 3?
I was interviewed on BusinessInsider about China. If you did not see it, this presentation covers a lot of points I discussed in this interview.
China – The Mother of All Black Swans
Chinese economy has tremendous overcapacity in the commercial and residential real estate and industrial sectors as you see from this presentation.
Jamie Dimon’s Thoughts on Chinese Banking System
In this excerpt, an employee who was present at the meeting sums up Jamie Dimon's, the head of JPMorgan, thoughts on China.
Another confirmation of Chinese not-so-miracle growth
Guangshen Railway announced its results for the first six months of 2009: “tonnage of freight transported by the Company amounted to 26.5406 million tonnes.”
Beating a Dead Horse
I know, I may sound like I’m beating a dead horse how much printer cartridge can one spill over China? But I have a very high burden of proof to overcome.
China’s growth an accounting miracle
Now we are learning how China has achieved its "miracle growth." The country showed positive GDP growth while its electricity consumption declined in the beginning of 2009.
The Simple Math of “Staggering” Chinese Growth
Chinese non-export economy grew 23% in June! Before you start googling for that number, let me warn you. You won’t find it.
The China Bubble’s Coming — But Not the One You Think
Financial commentators are obsessively debating whether the recent rise in the Chinese stock market means there's a bubble - and if so, when it's going to burst.
China Growth – No Miracle
One should not confuse China's latest economic growth with sustainable growth.
