The Process
Investment Process Presentation
"Better information" usually means insider information and will land you in jail. "Better analysis" means being able to build better models. "Be more rational than average market participant"
Playing a Game of Economic Survivor
At first, I felt like I needed a healthy dose of Prozac to tackle the article — it is easy to get depressed about the global economy.
For Europe, Breaking Up Is a Hard Thing to Do
Everyone is looking with horror at Europe, waiting for the European Economic and Monetary Union to break up and for the PIIGS to start dropping like flies, taking the rest of the euro zone and the global economy with them.
Fed is Measuring U.S. Economic Health by the Wrong Number
It is the Fed’s intervention in the free market and arbitrarily setting short- and long-term interest rates at insanely low levels that is responsible for this uncertainty, as it enables and propagates speculation, not investing and erodes confidence about the future.
We Are Not AAA
The Fed and FDIC announced that AA+ US debt is as good as AAA, and thus banks' reserve requirements will not change and bank lending should not change either.
VALUEx Vail 2011 – Thoughts from the conference
VALUEx Vail 2011 is over. I already miss these three days. I got the idea to put together VALUEx Vail after I attended VALUEx in Klosters in February this year.
Creighton Value Investing Panel
While in Omaha attending the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting I had the pleasure of participating on a Value Investing Panel at Creighton University.
Margin Shrinkage – It Can Happen to You
Profit margins are a tick away from all-time highs and are creating the impression of cheap equity valuations. But that impression is a mirage, because today’s generous margins are destined to shrink.
Set the Bar High
The world today is riddled with unique economic, political, and demographic risks. Finding attractively priced assets that will perform well in spite of these challenges is excruciatingly difficult.
U.S. Must “Man Up and Take the Pain” or We’ll Become Japan
"Lower taxes and borrow money to finance it," pretty much sounds like U.S. fiscal policy during the Bush years.
QE2: Beware the Perils of its Success
Over the next eight months the Federal Reserve will conduct QE2 – quantitative easing, the sequel. It will buy $600 billion worth of US long-term bonds in the open market.
Shadow over Asia
I had the pleasure of presenting my thesis on China and Japan at the Casey Research Summit in San Diego in early October.
Don’t call me Dr. Doom, call me Mr. Realist
The current strength of the US economy is significantly boosted by steroids graciously provided by the US government in the form of stimulus.
The China Bubble’s Coming — But Not the One You Think
Financial commentators are obsessively debating whether the recent rise in the Chinese stock market means there's a bubble - and if so, when it's going to burst.
You are not as smart as you think you are
Lately I’ve been getting this powerful feeling that everything I touch turns to gold. Every time I buy a stock, it goes up. Did I finally figure out the stock market game?
The pain of mean reversion
The stock market has dropped. Corporate profits have collapsed. And profit margins have reverted toward the mean. What is next?
The Process
Successful investing is about following a successful, time-proven process in good and bad times. Of course, the problem with the process - it may produce rather painful results.
Chinese and Starbucks Late Stage Growth Obesity
What do Starbucks and China have in common? A lot! Both got us hooked on consumption: one of fancy, expensive caffeinated liquids; the other on cheap foreign made goods.
Forbes Praises Active Value Investing
The new Benjamin Graham is Vitaliy N. Katsenelson. I highly recommend Katsenelson's book, Active Value Investing: Making Money in Range-Bound Markets
Is it a Bull, Bear or Cowardly Lion Market?
Are we in a bull, a bear, or a cowardly lion market? As we will see, the answer can make a huge difference in your investment portfolio.
