Vitaliy Katsenelson
Lecture: China & Global Economy
I had a great pleasure to give a lecture on China and its impact on global economy at Johns Hopkings University Applied Physics Lab.
Warning for an Eager Facebook Investor (my shortest article, ever!)
Here is a thought for an eager Facebook investor: Google revenue - $40 billion; market capitalization $200 billion (plus $40 billion of cash).
Omaha & Bubbles
It is Omaha time again! This year Value Investor Congress, which I’ll be attending, has been moved to Omaha. Congress is Sunday (May 6th) through Monday.
Not Buying Best Buy
Best Buy’s CEO Brian Dunn did a courageous and proper thing for shareholders by resigning. He was not the right person to lead Best Buy into battle against online-only competitors that use Best Buy’s spacious and beautiful stores as the showroom for their products.
Spring is here
Spring is here, time to ride my bicycle to work. This is the season when I pinch myself to remind me how great life is. I have to admit, I truly started to appreciate life when I had kids.
Don’t Look to the Market for Advice
Bull markets are Emerald Cities of our own making. In a bull market it is decreed that investors and the media shall wear green-tinted glasses.
Investor Alert: Xerox is a Cash Machine
On the surface Xerox Corp. smells a lot like its Nifty 50 brethren, once-hotter-than-the-sun-but-now-bankrupt Eastman Kodak Co. and Polaroid Corp.
Bullish. Bearish. Brokish!
Though the market keeps raging to the upside, I keep seeing bearish signs in market sentiment – the VIX is hitting multi-year lows, NYSE short interest is hitting a four-year low, the ratio of insider selling to buying is running at what John Hussman calls “panic level,” 8 to 1
VALUEx Vail 2012
VALUEx Vail is designed for serious investors to share ideas and learn from one another's experiences, all while enjoying each other's company and fun activities in the gorgeous Colorado mountains.
The Value Trap of Deeply Cyclical Stocks
It is easy to love deeply cyclical companies, which have benefited from the run-up in commodity prices over the past decade.
Interview with Advisor Perspectives
I wanted to share with you my interview with my friend Bob Huebscher who runs a terrific website Advisor Perspectives. I am very excited about this interview because in a very unconstrained format we had a chance to discuss Paul Krugman’s latest bearish article on China, the linkage between the European crisis and Chinese and Japanese bubbles.
Microsoft Is Not as Boring as it Appears
I am on my third cup of coffee, but my lack of excitement has not changed, as I am about to explain why the sleepiest, most boring stock in the universe - Microsoft Corp. - offers a very compelling reward with very reasonable risk.
Why Hewlett-Packard Is Today’s Most Hated Stock
When it comes to investing, love is not cheap. The trick is to identify misplaced hate that will turn into love. This brings us to the most-hated stock today: Hewlett-Packard Co.
For Europe, Breaking Up Is a Hard Thing to Do
Everyone is looking with horror at Europe, waiting for the European Economic and Monetary Union to break up and for the PIIGS to start dropping like flies, taking the rest of the euro zone and the global economy with them.
Some Thoughts on Buffett’s BRK Buyback Announcement
Buffett is not a typical CEO, in fact he is very hands off CEO. He doesn’t have stock options, he owns a lot of Berkshire (BRK) stock and has a very long-term time horizon.
Fed is Measuring U.S. Economic Health by the Wrong Number
It is the Fed’s intervention in the free market and arbitrarily setting short- and long-term interest rates at insanely low levels that is responsible for this uncertainty, as it enables and propagates speculation, not investing and erodes confidence about the future.
HP: Grow Up, Already
HP, once the symbol of innovation, is being dismantled by its high-pedigreed board and the CEO of the hour.
We Are Not AAA
The Fed and FDIC announced that AA+ US debt is as good as AAA, and thus banks' reserve requirements will not change and bank lending should not change either.
Thoughts on Brown & Brown: Stay Away!
Very significant portion of Brown & Brown’s (BRO) growth in the past came from acquiring brokers. I am naturally skeptical of sustainability of this type of growth as it comes with the following risks
The Chinese Black Swan
Party rulers in China are trapped in a position that chess players deeply fear - zugzwang - where any move made puts you at disadvantage.
Finding Investment Treasures in International Markets
International stocks need not be seen merely as a necessary evil for diversification—they should contribute in a real way to raising that bar, as they increase the quality of the investment pool.
