China
What happens in China may not stay in China
To understand what will happen in China and its impact on the global economy, we simply need to invert what happened over the last two decades.
US and China: In the Foothills of Cold War (Updated)
In this article, I update my views about the US and China, and include my original article going over the risks posed by tensions between the two nations. I also discuss and share an update on IMA's investment in defense stocks, in light of the current geopolitical climate.
Shadow Over Asia
Five years ago, almost to the day, I was interviewed by David Galland, who worked at Casey Research at the time. This interview covered three topics: the Chinese overcapacity bubble, the Japanese debt bubble, and my sideways markets thesis. Five years is a long time, but with the exception of updating some statistics I really would not change anything.
Canada’s China Problem Is Greater than Its Housing Problem
I keep hearing that Canada is in the midst of its own real estate bubble, and I wonder if our northern neighbor will have its own banking crisis soon.
Jim Chanos and the Commodities Supercycle at Valuex Vail
This year James Chanos gave the Valuex Vail attendees an update on the Chinese bubble: It is alive and kicking. Jim estimates that Chinese spending on residential construction is currently running at 20 percent of GDP.
The China Syndrome
MOST PEOPLE are convinced by now that there is a fixed-asset bubble in China that is on the verge of bursting. The question is, what is next?
Seek out people who disagree with you; The budget deficit is a stimulus; China = post-bubble Japan?
Buffett said "When government runs a 10% deficit, it is a stimulus, though nobody calls it that." But the bond market will not let us run 10% deficits forever.
Lecture: China & Global Economy
I had a great pleasure to give a lecture on China and its impact on global economy at Johns Hopkings University Applied Physics Lab.
Omaha & Bubbles
It is Omaha time again! This year Value Investor Congress, which I’ll be attending, has been moved to Omaha. Congress is Sunday (May 6th) through Monday.
Krugman’s Missed Call: China, Europe, and the Sideways Market
I wanted to share with you my interview with my friend Bob Huebscher who runs a terrific website Advisor Perspectives. I am very excited about this interview because in a very unconstrained format we had a chance to discuss Paul Krugman’s latest bearish article on China, the linkage between the European crisis and Chinese and Japanese bubbles.
Reappraising China’s ‘Staggering’ Growth
I am not writing this under duress, neither my family nor I were kidnapped by the Chinese government; I simply made a mistake in my last note about China.
