Client Letter
Lessons from History’s Technology Booms
The technology at the core of the mania is different every time. What doesn't change over time is human emotion – the fear of missing out and then the fear of loss.
The Magnificent 7 and the Dangers of Market Hype
Despite the S&P 500 showing gains in the mid-teens, the average stock on the market is either up slightly or flat for the year.
Understanding Today’s Economic Landscape
Interest rates that stay low and actually keep declining for almost a quarter of a century slowly propagate deep into the fabric of the economy.
From Bull to Sideways Markets to Nvidia
I discussed my condensed views on the stock market, economy, and our investment strategy in a letter to IMA clients.
The Growing Pains of Maturity
Many times, we bought because they were in their “junior year”; this is what made them undervalued. Our research led us to the conclusion that their difficulties were transitory and that as they matured the market would revalue them.
What is the Value of Apple? How do we evaluate risk?
Today I will share the Q&A section of the letter. Every time I am almost finished with the client letter, I ask clients to send me any questions they have about their portfolio or other topics. I answer these questions in the Q&A section.
Libertarian’s (Unexpected) View on the Bailout of the Banking System
Bailout of the banking system create social tension. Eventually, bailouts introduce so much risk into the system that failures and bailouts become too costly for the society to bear, government creates draconian rules trying to prevent them in future, which in turn kills innovation and the formation of new businesses, and the result is a stagnating economy.
What to Expect After the Silicon Valley Bank Collapse
The Silicon Valley Bank collapse may be an extreme event, but it gives us a preview at a 100x magnification of what other banks are facing.
The Stock Market, The Economy, Possible Outcomes, How to Invest
This is part one of the winter seasonal letter I wrote to IMA clients, sharing my thoughts about the economy and the market. I tried something I’ve never done before. Instead of conveying my message through storytelling, I tried to compress my thoughts into short sentences…
Why we’re confident in our Charter investment
The CHTR decline may have kicked us in the face, but our extensive research is telling we’re not wrong about our Charter investment. Here’s why:
Stock Market Roller Coaster: Prepare for a Decade or Two of Disappointing Returns!
Investors who own index funds have likely strapped themselves into a giant stock market roller coaster which, to this point, has only gone up.
Why we’re not celebrating the vindication of our investing principles
Value investors have had a miserable time over the past years. Now that our investing principles are finally being vindicated, you’d expect us to gloat. But Herr Schadenfreude is not a friend of ours.
See More Clearly With These Two Mental Models
I'm a big fan of mental models. They allow you to think through analogy, often folding complex concepts into simple ones and transporting them from one discipline to another. They're thinking shortcuts. If you arm yourself with mental models, you’ll often see what others don’t.
Position Sizing: How to Construct Portfolios That Protect You
Some investors think the fewer positions you own, the cooler you are. I remember meeting two investors at a conference. One had a seven-stock portfolio, the other had three stocks. Sadly, the financial crisis humbled both. On the other hand, too many positions breeds indifference. At IMA, our portfolio construction process is built from a first-principles perspective.
Why Green Energy is a Luxury Belief – But Won’t Be One Forever
Being a rich country has allowed us to develop what some call “luxury beliefs” – ideas that make us feel good but that fail upon contact with objective reality. We ignore inconvenient truths about green energy and keep marching on, trying to convert an even larger portion of our economy to wind and solar, without contemplating the related costs. When it comes to electricity generation, luxury beliefs can be dangerous.
McKesson: Why the Best is Yet to Come
What we have today in MCK is the largest drug distributor in the US, with a very stable and growing business. It is very cash-generative, doesn’t need much capital to grow, and has a very high return on capital. Owning the stock was very stressful at times but also very rewarding. But the best is yet to come for MCK.
How to Invest When There’s Nowhere to Hide
I was having lunch with a close friend of mine. He mentioned that he had accumulated a significant sum of money and did not know what to do with it. It was sitting in bonds, and inflation was eating its purchasing power at a very rapid rate.
This Holiday, Will Mr. Market Eat Too Much Pi?
There happens to be a cryptocurrency, one of thousands, that is also named Omicron. I still cannot grasp the logic behind it, but that cryptocurrency was up 900% on the day the South African variant was christened. There must have been a trading algorithm or a lot of bored investors looking for the next gamble, to drive something seemingly worthless up 900%.
