Macro
Here’s How Your Investments Can Survive a World of Trouble
Here’s How Your Investments Can Survive a World of Trouble: Focus on quality, moats, recurring revenue, and strong balance sheets.
World Leaders Are Taking Investors Down A Dangerous Economic Path
World leaders are steering investors into danger: Europe’s fractures, China’s debt bubble, and Japan’s stagnation cloud the global economic outlook.
The World Is Becoming Desperate About Deflation
Negative rates reveal global deflation risks, central banks' desperation signals weak growth, rising debt, and fragile economic recovery.
The Persistent Problems of Presidential Elections
We take peaceful transfers of power for granted, yet the persistent problems of presidential elections—money, lies, partisanship—remain.
Jos. A. Bank and the Folly of Quantitative Easing
Jos. A. Bank’s suit sales reveal the folly of quantitative easing—temporary fixes that turn permanent, lose potency, and end in collapse.
Whatever Happened to the Invisible Hand of Capitalism?
Whatever happened to the invisible hand of capitalism? When central banks set the price of money, markets lose their most vital signal.
Shadow Over Asia
Five years ago, almost to the day, I was interviewed by David Galland, who worked at Casey Research at the time. This interview covered three topics: the Chinese overcapacity bubble, the Japanese debt bubble, and my sideways markets thesis. Five years is a long time, but with the exception of updating some statistics I really would not change anything.
Putin’s World: Why Russia’s Showdown with the West Will Worsen
I was perplexed by how the Russian people could possibly support and not be outraged by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The True Value of Macro Forecasting
How much time a value investor should spend on macro forecasting? Usually macro forecasting is frowned upon in the value investing community.
Will Russia Go to War Over Ukraine? Don’t Bet on It
It is hard for me to see a full-blown war between Russia and Ukraine. There are so few cultural differences between these two countries.
Additional Thoughts on The Fed Model and Profit Margins
The Fed Model is extremely important, because I vividly remember how low interest rates and the Fed Model were used as propaganda tool.
The Not-So-Big Picture on Financial Models
Rarely do I disagree with fellow investor and financial blogger Barry Ritholtz, but the time has finally come. Last week Barry wrote a column for Bloomberg View.
Nelson Mandela
Nelson Mandela’s passing last week made me want to share some thoughts about him. I visited South Africa twice over the last five years.
Are We There Yet?
Are we still in the grip of a treacherous sideways market, or we are now entering into a secular bull market?
Lecture: China & Global Economy
I had a great pleasure to give a lecture on China and its impact on global economy at Johns Hopkings University Applied Physics Lab.
Krugman’s Missed Call: China, Europe, and the Sideways Market
I wanted to share with you my interview with my friend Bob Huebscher who runs a terrific website Advisor Perspectives. I am very excited about this interview because in a very unconstrained format we had a chance to discuss Paul Krugman’s latest bearish article on China, the linkage between the European crisis and Chinese and Japanese bubbles.
