Vitaliy Katsenelson
The Next Great Bubble: China
After the bubbles in technology, housing, and commodities, we saw the mother of all bubbles: the one in global liquidity. The world economy seemed to require bubbles for its continued functioning.
South Africa’s Heartbreak And Hope
When I was invited to give a presentation in March about my book to South African CFA Society members in Cape Town and Johannesburg, to say that my expectations for South Africa were low is a tremendous understatement.
Econ 101: Credit Card Fees
Banks opened a dirty, ugly Pandora's box when they destroyed their balance sheets to the point that the Federal government HAD to bail them out.
Citi really earn money?
If you thought banks like Citigroup (C) made money in the first quarter, think again. Its business just deteriorated and bonds declined so much.
Who’s going to buy gold?
Gold is one of those weird assets where nobody knows what it is really worth. You cannot run discounted cash flow analysis to value it.
Question to Readers
The economic picture has changed dramatically since Active Value Investing came out. Over the last six months I’ve been getting a lot of questions from readers.
Stock Prices, Consumer Confidence, CEOs — Self-Fulfiling
I'll not make a prediction if this latest rally in stocks is sustainable or not. I don't know. But it is self-fulfilling.
See You In Omaha
I’ll be attending Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting at the beginning of May. After attending it last year, I had serious doubts about returning.
Petrochemicals story continued
Basically, global consumption of goods decline, fewer goods manufactured, and fewer ships are needed to cross the Atlantic. Simply, less petrochemicals used.
The slippery slope of petrochemicals
I am back from South Africa where I spoke about my range-bound market thesis to South African Society of CFA in both Johannesburg and Cape Town.
The pain of mean reversion
The stock market has dropped. Corporate profits have collapsed. And profit margins have reverted toward the mean. What is next?
Jeremy Siegel is brilliant, uplifting and just plain wrong!
S&P 500 earnings topped out at about $84 a share in June 2007, while corporate profit margins were 44% above their average since 1980.
Exxon Apostasy Continued…
A very interesting cover story article in BusinessWeek about Exxon Mobil (XOM). I am usually skeptical of cover story articles, especially from BusinessWeek.
Worries in the Middle East
The Middle East is not immune to the problems around the world and to some degree it’s probably more vulnerable as these countries have not faced a crisis in a while.
Putin – the New Capitalistic Pig?
I found myself in a very awkward state when I read this. Though I agree with Mr. Putin, how can I argue with this flawless rhetoric?
Chrysler – Fiat Deal is Horrible for GM and Ford
Fiat's and Chrysler's new partnership is borderline good or, at a minimum, a non-event for Chrysler. It's great for Fiat, but horrible for General Motors (GM) and Ford (F).
Super Value In Groceries
SuperValu's name and ticker symbol, SVU, are quite contradictory. One indicates a value manager's dream - super value, a great investment, while the other is an acronym for the special victims unit.
Dear Mr. Ex-KGB
Dear Mr. Ex-KGB, desperate times call for desperate measures. No kidding. I understand why you took the collapse of the Soviet Union model added some wishful thinking and applied it to the United States.
Exxon Apostasy
A basic property of religion is that the believer takes a leap of faith: to believe without expecting proof. Often you find this characteristic of religion in other, more unexpected places--like the stock market.
Exxon Apostasy
Today's discussion is about another religion stock that is about to get its religious veil stripped. I have to warn you, it is another infallible corporate icon that can do nothing wrong: Exxon Mobil--the biggest oil company in the world.
Frame of Reference
It is important to have an appropriate frame of reference when we evaluate things. Yes, things in the US will get worse in the near future, especially if your frame of reference is the recent past, late 90s and 2000s.
