- Reserves deplete faster than oil (in general)
- Oil/natural gas ratio: the price of oil divided by the price of natural gas is at an all-time high (or close). This ratio stands at 17 (historically it has been at about an 8 or so), Natural gas prices will go up, oil will decline, or both. Also, natural gas is not a good hedge against the declining dollar (it is for the most part a domestic commodity) and storage capacity is more limited, thus not as admired by speculators as oil. This explains in part why it lagged the the spectacular performance of oil of late.
- At $4, natural gas it is uneconomical to develop and look for new reserves.
- No OPEC competition, LNG (liquid natural gas) imports are uneconomical at these prices.
- Politically more favorable than coal.
- After emission caps are implemented natural gas will become a cheaper alternative than politically and environmentally unfriendly coal.
Please read the following important disclosure here.
New to investing?
Explore these valuable guides to get started.
Related Articles
Depressing Reasons Why I Am Bullish On Gold (part 2)
Here is what changed my mind. Not something about gold, but many things about the dollar. The US dollar is the world's reserve currency. It has had a well-deserved place since WWII, and that rested on three things: the largest, steadiest, most diverse economy; a politically stable democracy; the best military.
Narrative Change (part 1)
Narrative change is a reversal of mass behavior. Economics and stock market valuation are governed by soft laws, but the reality bent by human behavior can disagree with these soft laws for much longer than rational actors would expect, or stay solvent. The change, going from euphoria to despair, is a change in narrative.
Today’s Market = 1999 Capex + 2008 Credit
I wrote in the past that the AI rollout feels a lot like déjà vu of the 1999 telecom bubble. Today's AI bubble has elements of both the 1999 overinvestment in internet infrastructure and the 2008 collapse of financial instruments that infected the banking and financial system.
You Don’t Need to Be an Expert to Hire One. You Need a Tunaman.
I interview corporate executives for a living. I have spent nearly three decades analyzing businesses and managing other people's savings. And yet, when my wife and I decided to remodel our house, I felt completely naked.
comments
0