Stock Analysis
The China Syndrome
MOST PEOPLE are convinced by now that there is a fixed-asset bubble in China that is on the verge of bursting. The question is, what is next?
Why Windows 8 Made Me Sell MSFT
A few weeks ago we sold our shares of Microsoft. Because we believe the stock is undervalued, that decision was not easy. What changed?
Everyone Who Says Facebook’s IPO Failed Is Wrong
I wrote that Facebook stock was overvalued, while last week I wrote that Facebook’s valuation at IPO was fair. Those statements are not contradictory.
How to Fix Best Buy
Best Buy Co. shareholders are lucky that CEO Brian Dunn pulled a “Mark Hurd” and resigned as a result of allegations of an inappropriate relationship with a staffer.
Facebook IPO Was a Success and Wall Street Got What it Deserved
Being politically correct has never been my strongest quality; therefore I’ll say this: I don’t feel sorry for Facebook’s new ...
Why Facebook’s IPO Valuation is Insane
The easiest way to assess the insanity of Facebook’s valuation is by comparing it to Google’s.
Seek out people who disagree with you; The budget deficit is a stimulus; China = post-bubble Japan?
Buffett said "When government runs a 10% deficit, it is a stimulus, though nobody calls it that." But the bond market will not let us run 10% deficits forever.
Lecture: China & Global Economy
I had a great pleasure to give a lecture on China and its impact on global economy at Johns Hopkings University Applied Physics Lab.
Warning for an Eager Facebook Investor (my shortest article, ever!)
Here is a thought for an eager Facebook investor: Google revenue - $40 billion; market capitalization $200 billion (plus $40 billion of cash).
Omaha & Bubbles
It is Omaha time again! This year Value Investor Congress, which I’ll be attending, has been moved to Omaha. Congress is Sunday (May 6th) through Monday.
Not Buying Best Buy
Best Buy’s CEO Brian Dunn did a courageous and proper thing for shareholders by resigning. He was not the right person to lead Best Buy into battle against online-only competitors that use Best Buy’s spacious and beautiful stores as the showroom for their products.
Don’t Look to the Market for Advice
Bull markets are Emerald Cities of our own making. In a bull market it is decreed that investors and the media shall wear green-tinted glasses.
Investor Alert: Xerox is a Cash Machine
On the surface Xerox Corp. smells a lot like its Nifty 50 brethren, once-hotter-than-the-sun-but-now-bankrupt Eastman Kodak Co. and Polaroid Corp.
Bullish. Bearish. Brokish!
Though the market keeps raging to the upside, I keep seeing bearish signs in market sentiment – the VIX is hitting multi-year lows, NYSE short interest is hitting a four-year low, the ratio of insider selling to buying is running at what John Hussman calls “panic level,” 8 to 1
VALUEx Vail 2012
VALUEx Vail is designed for serious investors to share ideas and learn from one another's experiences, all while enjoying each other's company and fun activities in the gorgeous Colorado mountains.
The Value Trap of Deeply Cyclical Stocks
It is easy to love deeply cyclical companies, which have benefited from the run-up in commodity prices over the past decade.
Interview with Advisor Perspectives
I wanted to share with you my interview with my friend Bob Huebscher who runs a terrific website Advisor Perspectives. I am very excited about this interview because in a very unconstrained format we had a chance to discuss Paul Krugman’s latest bearish article on China, the linkage between the European crisis and Chinese and Japanese bubbles.
Microsoft Is Not as Boring as it Appears
I am on my third cup of coffee, but my lack of excitement has not changed, as I am about to explain why the sleepiest, most boring stock in the universe - Microsoft Corp. - offers a very compelling reward with very reasonable risk.
Why Hewlett-Packard Is Today’s Most Hated Stock
When it comes to investing, love is not cheap. The trick is to identify misplaced hate that will turn into love. This brings us to the most-hated stock today: Hewlett-Packard Co.
Money Managers Are Not Factory Workers
One of the biggest hazards of being a professional money manager is that you are expected to behave in a certain way: You have to come to the office every day, work long hours, slog through countless emails, be on top of your portfolio, watch business TV and consume news continuously, and dress well and conservatively, wearing a rope around the only part of your body that lets air get to your brain.
Some Thoughts on Buffett’s BRK Buyback Announcement
Buffett is not a typical CEO, in fact he is very hands off CEO. He doesn’t have stock options, he owns a lot of Berkshire (BRK) stock and has a very long-term time horizon.
