Healthcare Game

In his healthcare proposal President Obama is using a tactic described in behavioral finance as anchoring.

Healthcare Game

Given my usual warning, I don’t want to discuss politics in my writings for two reasons: it bores me to death and I’ll upset 55% of my readers. But an investor cannot ignore politics especially today. What happens in Washington doesn’t stay in Washington.

In his healthcare proposal President Obama is using a tactic described in behavioral finance as anchoring. Here’s a real life example from my married life. Let’s say I buy an expensive toy (usually a geeky one like an electronic gadget) for $300. My wife will ask me how much it is, and I’ll respond with $600. With a stunned look on her face, her reaction is typically “You paid $600 for this?” I then come back with, “What would you say if it was $300?”

Her answer is usually something like “Ok, that would be a good price,” and I’ll finally admit I lied and that it is $300. She’s not upset with me anymore and everyone wins. I anchored her at the higher price ($600) and then the lower ($300) now seems like a bargain.

Mr. President is doing the same thing. He asked in his healthcare bill a lot more than he knows he could possibly receive. So anytime he is giving up something, like insurance companies’ right to exist, he is “compromising” and republicans and taxpayers claim a small victory. This is important. The President knows he won’t receive everything he asked for. He knows that the public option (a government insurance competitor – an Oxymoron if ask me) was a “no go” from very beginning. And thus he’ll “compromise” it away with cooperatives.

As dust around the healthcare bill begins to settle, we are seeing hints that health insurance companies will not be euthanized and in the worst case, they may have to compete with cooperatives. Let me tell you this. As a guy who spent half of his life in Russia and has seen cooperatives, this is an antonym to competition. I have yet to meet a person who adores his HMO, but for-profit HMOs are a better evil and more importantly, more efficient than not-for-profit cooperatives. I am buying HMO stocks.

Please read the following important disclosure here.

Related Articles

Q&A Series: Diversification and Position Sizing in Investing

Q&A Series: Diversification and Position Sizing in Investing

Today's excerpts from Q&A session I held in Omaha focuses on crucial investment strategies: diversification and position sizing in investing.
The Hidden Advantages of Investing from NOT New York City

The Hidden Advantages of Investing from NOT New York City

What are the hidden advantages of living away from “noisy” investing centers like New York? 

Money Managers Are Not Factory Workers

One of the biggest hazards of being a professional money manager is that you are expected to behave in a certain way: You have to come to the office every day, work long hours, slog through countless emails, be on top of your portfolio, watch business TV and consume news continuously, and dress well and conservatively, wearing a rope around the only part of your body that lets air get to your brain.

DeepSeek Breaks the AI Paradigm

I’ve received emails from readers asking my thoughts on DeepSeek. I need to start with two warnings. First, the usual one: I’m a generalist value investor, not a technology specialist, so my knowledge of AI models is superficial. Second, and more unusually, we don’t have all the facts yet.

Leave a Comment