Nokia Deal Could Mark the Last Chapter for Microsoft

Microsoft needs a new CEO who is an outsider and not entangled in internal politics. It is in desperate need of a Lou Gerstner-like leader

Nokia Deal Could Mark the Last Chapter for Microsoft

On Monday night I sat down to put my thoughts to paper. I was going to pontificate on CEO Steve Ballmer’s departure from Microsoft, saying something along the lines of “With Steve Ballmer gone, at least Microsoft’s capital allocation will be better — no more multibillion-dollar acquisitions and consequent write-offs.” I opened my Chrome browser (I gave up using Internet Explorer a long time ago), and the first piece of news I saw: Microsoft had just paid $7.2 billion for Nokia’s handset business.

Before I get into the Nokia acquisition, let me talk about the two Microsofts: the Bill Gates Microsoft that died in 2000 when Gates retired as CEO, and the Microsoft that was born when Steve Ballmer took over.

Bill Gates built an enormous, one-of-a-kind company with insurmountable competitive advantages. It was not great at innovation but was terrific at copying; it would take a product made by someone else and make it much better. WordPerfect, Lotus 1-2-3, Novel, Lotus Notes, Borland Paradox — all these products and the companies that made them were replicated out of existence by Bill Gates’s Microsoft.

Bill’s Microsoft was not perfect. It almost slept through the Internet revolution, but when it woke up it marched on with a vengeance and reclaimed its relevancy.

Bill Gates retired as CEO in 2000. Although he remained chairman, his focus was on how to give away rather than make money. Steve Ballmer, his former Harvard University dorm mate and fateful No. 2, became CEO. The irony of Ballmer’s Microsoft is that although revenues and earnings have almost tripled since he became CEO — not a sign of a failing leadership or mismanaged company — Microsoft nevertheless became less relevant, missed significant technological transitions, and lost its market dominance in mobile to Apple and Google. It allowed Apple to take over the tablet market; and despite spending over $10 billion on search, its market share in search pales in comparison to Google’s. Yes, the company’s financials look impressive, but they were delivered on autopilot by the Microsoft created by Bill Gates. Microsoft is an air carrier that gained speed in the ’80s and the ’90s, and has been coasting on momentum (inertia) ever since. But momentum is finite, and there are always storms en route.

Please read the following important disclosure here.

Enjoyed this read?

Share it with someone who’d love it too!

New to investing?

Explore these valuable guides to get started.

Related Articles

Todays Market = 1999 Capex + 2008 Credit

Today’s Market = 1999 Capex + 2008 Credit

I wrote in the past that the AI rollout feels a lot like déjà vu of the 1999 telecom bubble. Today's AI bubble has elements of both the 1999 overinvestment in internet infrastructure and the 2008 collapse of financial instruments that infected the banking and financial system.
You Don't Need to Be an Expert to Hire One. You Need a Tunaman

You Don’t Need to Be an Expert to Hire One. You Need a Tunaman.

I interview corporate executives for a living. I have spent nearly three decades analyzing businesses and managing other people's savings. And yet, when my wife and I decided to remodel our house, I felt completely naked.
You are not as smart as you think you are

You are not as smart as you think you are – Update 2026

In a bull market, it is easy to forget about selling discipline and then turn into a "buy and forget to sell" investor. Every time you sell a stock, you look dumb because it usually goes up afterward.
This Is Your Captain Speaking – Buckle Up

This Is Your Captain Speaking – Buckle Up

I have been feeling very uneasy about the market and the economy. Over the last two decades our economy has been acclimated to insanely low interest rates, and reacclimation to higher and rising rates is going to be difficult.

Leave a Comment