Our Thinking About Coronavirus Has Evolved

Our thinking about coronavirus has evolved significantly over the last few weeks. Our initial optimism that it would send us into a mild recession was proven wrong by our government’s inept response – the extra time that we were given was wasted.

Our Thinking About Coronavirus Has Evolved

This is an excerpt from letter I wrote to IMA‘s clients.

Our thinking about coronavirus has evolved significantly over the last few weeks. Our initial optimism that it would send us into a mild recession was proven wrong by our government’s inept response – the extra time that we were given was wasted. South Korea and the US had their first cases of COVID-19 on the same day. South Korea completely contained the virus through extensive testing and selective quarantining, while we failed to get the job done.

One factor that has worked to our disadvantage (one that is obvious in hindsight, as always, but I didn’t see it a few weeks ago) is that we here in the US are too “fat and happy.” The US is a democracy that has never fought a war on its own territory with another nation (9/11 is as close as we’ve come). We are separated from the rest of the world by an ocean on either side and two friendly neighbors on our north and south. We have simply been spoiled by prosperity. Bad things only had happened to other countries, not us. And this is how we looked at the virus when it exploded in China.

Being a democracy that values personal liberty has a lot of advantages, but expediency is not one of them. Today we are at war with a foreign entity and it is not a country but a tiny virus. Winston Churchill said, “You can always count on the Americans to do the right thing after they have tried everything else.” In a few short weeks we’ve “tried everything else” and now we are taking COVID-19 seriously on both the federal and state levels.

Please read the following important disclosure here.

Related Articles

Q&A Series: Diversification and Position Sizing in Investing

Q&A Series: Diversification and Position Sizing in Investing

Today's excerpts from Q&A session I held in Omaha focuses on crucial investment strategies: diversification and position sizing in investing.
The Hidden Advantages of Investing from NOT New York City

The Hidden Advantages of Investing from NOT New York City

What are the hidden advantages of living away from “noisy” investing centers like New York? 

Money Managers Are Not Factory Workers

One of the biggest hazards of being a professional money manager is that you are expected to behave in a certain way: You have to come to the office every day, work long hours, slog through countless emails, be on top of your portfolio, watch business TV and consume news continuously, and dress well and conservatively, wearing a rope around the only part of your body that lets air get to your brain.

DeepSeek Breaks the AI Paradigm

I’ve received emails from readers asking my thoughts on DeepSeek. I need to start with two warnings. First, the usual one: I’m a generalist value investor, not a technology specialist, so my knowledge of AI models is superficial. Second, and more unusually, we don’t have all the facts yet.

Leave a Comment