Paint me a skeptic or perhaps it’s just from being born in Russia, but I think Russian oil production is very likely to decline in the future. Why? Simple, over last couple of years Russian Government has de-privatized a big chunk of oil companies. As we know government is not as effective at managing resources as private enterprise. Don’t believe me? Just take a look how Fed Ex (FDX) and UPS have taken share from the US Postal Service – a government run legal monopoly.
Please read the following important disclosure here.
New to investing?
Explore these valuable guides to get started.
Related Articles
Narrative Change (part 1)
Narrative change is a reversal of mass behavior. Economics and stock market valuation are governed by soft laws, but the reality bent by human behavior can disagree with these soft laws for much longer than rational actors would expect, or stay solvent. The change, going from euphoria to despair, is a change in narrative.
Today’s Market = 1999 Capex + 2008 Credit
I wrote in the past that the AI rollout feels a lot like déjà vu of the 1999 telecom bubble. Today's AI bubble has elements of both the 1999 overinvestment in internet infrastructure and the 2008 collapse of financial instruments that infected the banking and financial system.
You Don’t Need to Be an Expert to Hire One. You Need a Tunaman.
I interview corporate executives for a living. I have spent nearly three decades analyzing businesses and managing other people's savings. And yet, when my wife and I decided to remodel our house, I felt completely naked.
You are not as smart as you think you are – Update 2026
In a bull market, it is easy to forget about selling discipline and then turn into a "buy and forget to sell" investor. Every time you sell a stock, you look dumb because it usually goes up afterward.
comments
0