- Reserves deplete faster than oil (in general)
- Oil/natural gas ratio: the price of oil divided by the price of natural gas is at an all-time high (or close). This ratio stands at 17 (historically it has been at about an 8 or so), Natural gas prices will go up, oil will decline, or both. Also, natural gas is not a good hedge against the declining dollar (it is for the most part a domestic commodity) and storage capacity is more limited, thus not as admired by speculators as oil. This explains in part why it lagged the the spectacular performance of oil of late.
- At $4, natural gas it is uneconomical to develop and look for new reserves.
- No OPEC competition, LNG (liquid natural gas) imports are uneconomical at these prices.
- Politically more favorable than coal.
- After emission caps are implemented natural gas will become a cheaper alternative than politically and environmentally unfriendly coal.
Please read the following important disclosure here.
Enjoyed this read?
Share it with someone who’d love it too!
New to investing?
Explore these valuable guides to get started.
Related Articles

The Church of Climate and the Law of Unintended Consequences
When policies are judged by intentions rather than outcomes, you get Germany closing nuclear plants only to burn more coal.

Our Sistine Chapel: Long-Term Investing in Quality and Kindness
Warren Buffett calls Berkshire Hathaway his Sistine Chapel. This analogy haunted me for years until I realized we are building the exact same thing at IMA. It took me a decade to put into words, but I finally narrowed our firm’s entire reason for existence down to just two words. They sound simple, but living up to them is the hardest thing we’ve ever done.

Living and Investing with Intention
As an investor, being intentional about identifying assumptions is extremely important. When you're mindless, you accept things as they are without realizing you're walking on thin ice while everyone else thinks it's solid ground.

Quality Matters: From Paris to Portfolios
Today I am a different (hopefully better) investor than I was five, ten, twenty years ago; as I look at the biggest changes, it is my focus on quality investing and being extremely selective and uncompromising when it comes to quality.




0 comments
0