Bubble

Market Types & Cycles

Value investing doesn't do as well when the punch bowl is spiked with euphoria and everyone only looks up. It is when the punch bowl is taken away and investors start looking down that value investing, or simply common sense, does well.

Source: This Is Your Captain Speaking — Buckle Up June 8, 2026

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My Most Popular Articles

August 11, 2022

Why Value Investing Requires Thoughtful Arrogance

You need arrogance as a value investor, but it can also be your downfall. So how do you master the psychological side of value investing?

Stock Market

February 24, 2022

See More Clearly With These Two Mental Models

I'm a big fan of mental models. They allow you to think through analogy, often folding complex concepts into simple ones and transporting them from one discipline to another. They're thinking shortcuts. If you arm yourself with mental models, you’ll often see what others don’t.

Client Letter

January 26, 2021

Value & Growth Demagogues

I have a problem with both value- and growth investing demagogues. While value demagogues tend to believe any company that trades at a P/E above the market average is too frothy, growth demagogues claim that price doesn't matter.

Qualcomm, Tesla

August 7, 2018

Being A Father

What's better: leaving your children with $100M after you pass away, or leaving them with fond memories of your time together? Sparked by an unexpected comment from a millionaire's son, I ponder this question.

Life

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My Most Popular Articles

Why Value Investing Requires Thoughtful Arrogance

See More Clearly With These Two Mental Models

Value & Growth Demagogues

Being A Father

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