A great speaker can bend logic with emotions and exert undue influence on your decision making. The better someone speaks, the more discriminating your Sophist filter needs to be.

September 3, 2026

Depressing Reasons Why I Am Bullish On Gold (part 2)

Here is what changed my mind. Not something about gold, but many things about the dollar. The US dollar is the world's reserve currency. It has had a well-deserved place since WWII, and that rested on three things: the largest, steadiest, most diverse economy; a politically stable democracy; the best military.

Client Letter

August 27, 2026

Narrative Change (part 1)

Narrative change is a reversal of mass behavior. Economics and stock market valuation are governed by soft laws, but the reality bent by human behavior can disagree with these soft laws for much longer than rational actors would expect, or stay solvent. The change, going from euphoria to despair, is a change in narrative.

Client Letter

July 30, 2026

Today’s Market = 1999 Capex + 2008 Credit

I wrote in the past that the AI rollout feels a lot like déjà vu of the 1999 telecom bubble. Today's AI bubble has elements of both the 1999 overinvestment in internet infrastructure and the 2008 collapse of financial instruments that infected the banking and financial system.