Stock Analysis
The Next Great Bubble: China
After the bubbles in technology, housing, and commodities, we saw the mother of all bubbles: the one in global liquidity. The world economy seemed to require bubbles for its continued functioning.
Citi really earn money?
If you thought banks like Citigroup (C) made money in the first quarter, think again. Its business just deteriorated and bonds declined so much.
Petrochemicals story continued
Basically, global consumption of goods decline, fewer goods manufactured, and fewer ships are needed to cross the Atlantic. Simply, less petrochemicals used.
The slippery slope of petrochemicals
I am back from South Africa where I spoke about my range-bound market thesis to South African Society of CFA in both Johannesburg and Cape Town.
Jeremy Siegel is brilliant, uplifting and just plain wrong!
S&P 500 earnings topped out at about $84 a share in June 2007, while corporate profit margins were 44% above their average since 1980.
Exxon Apostasy Continued…
A very interesting cover story article in BusinessWeek about Exxon Mobil (XOM). I am usually skeptical of cover story articles, especially from BusinessWeek.
Worries in the Middle East
The Middle East is not immune to the problems around the world and to some degree it’s probably more vulnerable as these countries have not faced a crisis in a while.
Chrysler – Fiat Deal is Horrible for GM and Ford
Fiat's and Chrysler's new partnership is borderline good or, at a minimum, a non-event for Chrysler. It's great for Fiat, but horrible for General Motors (GM) and Ford (F).
Super Value In Groceries
SuperValu's name and ticker symbol, SVU, are quite contradictory. One indicates a value manager's dream - super value, a great investment, while the other is an acronym for the special victims unit.
Exxon Apostasy
A basic property of religion is that the believer takes a leap of faith: to believe without expecting proof. Often you find this characteristic of religion in other, more unexpected places--like the stock market.
Exxon Apostasy
Today's discussion is about another religion stock that is about to get its religious veil stripped. I have to warn you, it is another infallible corporate icon that can do nothing wrong: Exxon Mobil--the biggest oil company in the world.
Frame of Reference
It is important to have an appropriate frame of reference when we evaluate things. Yes, things in the US will get worse in the near future, especially if your frame of reference is the recent past, late 90s and 2000s.
The Incredible Jos. A. Bank
When I think of the Jos. A. Bank (JOSB), I think of Yogi Berra's saying "Nobody goes there because it is too crowded."
Audio Interview with Chuck Jaffe at MarketWatch
I had a fun radio/podcast interview today with Chuck Jaffe at MarketWatch, we “played” hold it or fold it with some of the stocks we own.
AmEx as a Bank Holding Company
AmEx becoming a bank holding company (BHC) is not just net positive for the company it is simply positive. When a highly leveraged investment bank like Goldman Sachs turns into a BHC, its future profitability suffers as its leverage drops to commensurate level of the bank.
Stuff Stocks Still Too Expensive
I am probably right about what I am about to say: The global slowdown is just starting and will last longer than most expect.
Interview with Advisor Perspectives
I was interviewed by terrific Robert Huebscher at Advisor Perspectives. We've revisited my range-bound markets thesis, possible economic scenarios for our economy, and discussed global economy including Europe, Russia, Middle East, and of course China.
You are not as dumb as you think – or – Psychotherapy for Bear Markets
Today I've slightly rewritten the same article to address underconfidence of bear markets.You are not as dumb as you think - or - Psychotherapy for Bear Markets.
Forbes Video Interview: Dotcom portfolio
I was interviewed by Forbes in early October. I discussed my favorite "dotcom" portfolio of stocks.
Thoughts about the market
Some thoughts about the market. In today’s market you see some unbelievable opportunities. For the first time, in a long, long time, we can actually put a full portfolio together where we don’t have to compromise on Quality, Valuation or Growth when we pick stocks
